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Yao can see the end of the line

Basketball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Your average human being doesn't stand 7-foot-6 and weigh 310 pounds.

In basketball, size among the skilled is the holy grail -- the only thing you can't teach. But, like anything else, there are pros and cons to having a talented big man that looks down at the rest of us.

Nearly 15 months ago, the Houston Rockets were battling the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. Yao Ming dominated, scoring 28 points, including eight in the final four minutes, to lift Houston to an impressive 100-92 win.

Of course the Lakers responded, but their path to what would be the first of back-to-back championships was made much easier when Yao was diagnosed with a sprained ankle after Game 3 of that set.

A follow-up test revealed a hairline fracture in the big man's left foot, and he was ruled out for the remainder of the playoffs. At the time, Yao downplayed the injury and a conservative treatment plan was drawn up, calling for him to cease all physical training and to use a walking boot in order to immobilize the foot and promote healing.

The prognosis had the foot healing over the summer but the fracture failed to respond and Yao underwent surgery, putting the playing career of the Rockets' cornerstone in jeopardy.

For now, the Rockets are expecting Yao to be back for the 2010-11 campaign but the seven-time All-Star caused quite a stir in his native China on Tuesday, intimating he would in fact have to consider retiring if the foot fails to recover.

"If the foot injury does not heal next season I might choose to call it quits," Yao, who is entering the last year of his contract, said in an interview with Chinese state media.

The big man had already indicated that his days playing for the Chinese National team were probably behind him.

"The foot injury will not allow me to play so many games anymore," Yao said. "Like I said before, I will quit the national team and the sport one day. It's what happens to every athlete."

It's Yao's prodigious size that makes leg injuries a far more serious subject, Other talented big men like Sam Bowie, Bill Walton and another former Rocket, Ralph Sampson, had careers cut short by a seemingly never-ending series of leg injuries. Meanwhile, current Portland pivot Greg Oden may be heading in a similar direction.

Yao, an eight-year NBA veteran, has now had three different fractures of the left foot and a hairline crack of the right leg. He has had five-consecutive seasons interrupted or ended by some kind of injury.

The Shanghai native did return to the floor in late May and has been going through full-contact workouts at Toyota Center, buoying the Rockets' spirits. Meanwhile, Houston general manager Daryl Morey continues to indicate Yao is indeed on pace to start training camp healthy and on time.

"Yao is on schedule to be available the first day of training camp," Morey told a Houston newspaper on Tuesday. "He's continued to make positive strides in his rehab work and all medical reports so far have been positive. He's been working consistently four to five days a week, and we expect him to be there when we open camp on September 25th."

A healthy Yao instantly turns the Rockets back into a Western Conference contender. In fact, a starting lineup featuring the Chinese star along with Luis Scola, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin projects as one of the NBA's best.

But, projections are just that -- an estimate of future possibilities based on current events that remain fluid.

And no projection to my knowledge has ever taken into account the doubt that has crept into the mind of a 7-foot-6, oft-injured former All-Star.


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Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back

With only 21 home runs standing between him and Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds is indeed planning on coming back for more in 2007. At least, that's what his agent told the Los Angeles Times.

"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."

Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .

Get all your baseball betting lines, MLB lines and MLB team props at the My Sportbook.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.