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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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SPORTS BETTING

In terms of sports wagering, the NFL is "the most popular game in town." The explanation behind that is easy.

It is called the "pointspread."

Many years ago, NFL games, as well as the more popular college games, used straight odds as a vehicle for betting. For example, if the Bears were playing the Giants, and it shaped up as a competitive contest, the Bears might be, say, a 7/5 favorite. If they were playing an also-ran, it might be 10/1. Well, there is a point where a line becomes prohibitive, as far as betting the favorite. And who would waste money betting an underdog that has virtually no chance? Such a setup did not contribute to promoting betting action.

But in modern sports betting, a "pointspread" is used.

A NFL pointspreads are exactly that, a pre-established point difference between the two sides that will, for all intents and purposes, create a handicap that evens things out, and in doing so, produces comparable wagering activity on both sides of that proposition. So in lieu of a odds figure in which to bet the team to win outright, the Bears might be a three-point favorite over the New York Giants, and a 17-point favorite over the also-ran. Now that the team that is the underdog can "get" points, there can be equal action on both sides.

In sportsbooks, this is usually done with efficiency by charging the losing bettors 10% extra - in effect, bettors are laying 11/10 on those games. So they are actually betting $110 to win $100. If they lose, they pay the "vig." If they win, they simply collect.

The establishment of the pointspread as the corner stone around which team sports like football can be wagered upon was truly what brought gridiron betting into the stratosphere.

Don't believe it? Just take a look at what happens around the Super Bowl.

Stay with us here as we take you through the best in NFL action on a consistent basis, with advice columns as well as handicapping selections. If you're looking for college football betting, that's in our NCAA section, which you can reach by clicking here. And if you're looking for a different kind of football, such as the Canadian Football League, which we'll deal with occasionally, or the Arena Football League, which we really like, you can find it in our Miscellaneous section by clicking

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting odds .
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