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Ray carries Eskimos over Bombers; Lumsden hurts shoulderFootball Betting Lines07/03/2009 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ricky Ray went 29-for-41 passing for 318 yards and a touchdown, as the Edmonton Eskimos edged the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 19-17, in the teams' season-opener. Edmonton took the win after Winnipeg kicker Alexis Serna missed a potential game-tying field goal of 56 yards in the final seconds, giving new Esks head coach Richie Hall his first victory. Andrew Nowacki caught seven passes for 79 yards and a score for Edmonton (1-0), which finished last season with a 10-8 record and defeated Winnipeg in the division semifinals before falling to Montreal in the division final. Calvin McCarty ran for 27 yards on 12 carries in the win, but the Esks' running back corps took a hit when Jesse Lumsden left with an apparent shoulder separation. Maurice Mann had five catches for 87 yards for Edmonton. Fred Reid rushed 13 times for 92 yards and a score for the Bombers (0-1), who played their first game under new head coach Mike Kelly. Stefan LeFors threw for 174 yards on 14-of-31 passing in the loss, while Adarius Bowman caught five passes for 56 yards for Winnipeg, which went 8-10 and finished second in the East Division last season. The Eskimos went ahead, 19-9, on Noel Prefontaine's 19-yard field goal with a little under eight minutes to play in the game. Mann helped Edmonton get into scoring territory after catching a 44-yard bomb from Ray while falling down. But the Bombers came back, and scored just past the midway point of the quarter. Reid took a handoff and dashed around the right end, shedding a tackler before going into the end zone for the 16-yard TD. Serna's extra point brought Winnipeg within 19-16. The teams traded punts, and Edmonton got the ball back with 2:40 to go just into Winnipeg territory. But an unsuccessful series led to a punt, as the Bombers took over with two minutes left on their own 20. LeFors led Winnipeg downfield, and completed a 13-yard pass to Bowman with under half a minute to play, getting the Bombers to the Edmonton 42. Another short pass to Bowman got the Bombers to the 35 before a penalty moved them back five yards. An Edmonton timeout set up the final kick, but Serna's boot sailed wide left and went for a single, leaving Winnipeg short at the clock ran out. After neither team scored in the first quarter, each got a safety in the second. The Esks went up 9-2 at intermission after Ray's 19-yard TD pass to Nowacki in the final minute of the half. The Bombers, though, pulled even after Tristan Jackson fumbled on a punt return. Shawn Gallant picked up the loose ball and ran it back for the score a little more than halfway through the third quarter. But the Esks re-took the lead after Ray's one-yard TD run later in the quarter, making it a 16-9 game. Game Notes Kai Ellis had two sacks for Edmonton, while Don Oramasionwu had one for Winnipeg...Ray had one interception for the Esks...The Bombers had 162 rushing yards, compared to only 33 for the Eskimos.
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Football Betting LinesThe 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have been released and Denver Broncos' running back Knowshon Moreno has been made the opening favorite. Moreno was selected in the first round of April's NFL draft and is expected to carry the rushing load for the Broncos this season. And with Jay Cutler now in Chicago, Moreno might be expected to be Denver's entire offense. Betting Lines from sports betting lines have made Moreno a 5/2 favorite to win this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Fellow running back Chris “Beanie” Wells (Arizona Cardinals) is right behind Moreno at 7/2, while Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) and receiver Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) are 5/1 to win. Quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) and Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) are 7/1 and 8/1, respectively. A couple of players who present some value are Josh Freeman, Shonn Green and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Freeman needs to beat out Byron Leftwich to become the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but if he does, he has a lot or raw talent and could use the weapons around him (i.e. Kellen Winslow Jr. and Antonio Bryant) to be very successful in his first season. Green enters a crowded backfield in New York, but considering both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are unhappy about their contract situations and might holdout, the former Iowa product could become the Jets' primary back. Everyone was shocked when Al Davis took Heyward-Bey with the eighth overall pick in April's draft, but the kid has a tremendous amount of talent and if quarterback JaMarcus Russell takes the next step this year, the former Maryland product could blossom. Plus, Heyward-Bey will be looking to prove the people wrong who said Oakland should have taken Michael Crabtree with the No. 8 pick. And if you're looking for a deep sleeper, check out Pat White at 30/1. He enters the Miami Dolphins vaunted “Wild Cat” offense and could be a big time playmaker. For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, see below. 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win Ramses Barden (NYG) 40/1 Andre Brown (NYG) 20/1 Donald Brown (IND) 5/1 Kenny Britt (TEN) 20/1 Glenn Coffee (SFO) 30/1 Chase Coffman (CIN) 50/1 Michael Crabtree (SFO) 5/1 Josh Freeman (TB) 14/1 Shonn Green (NYJ) 14/1 Percy Harvin (MIN) 10/1 Darrius Heyward-Bay (OAK) 18/1 Juaquan Iglesias (CHI) 30/1 Cornelius Ingram (PHI) 50/1 Rashad Jennings (JAC) 30/1 Johnny Knox (CHI) 40/1 Jeremy Maclin (PHI) 18/1 Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) 30/1 LeSean McCoy (PHI) 12/1 Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 5/2 Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 18/1 Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 30/1 Brian Robiskie (CLE) 20/1 Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 7/1 Matthew Stafford (DET) 8/1 Jason Smith (STL) 40/1 Mike Thomas (JAC) 25/1 Patrick Turner (MIA) 50/1 Mike Wallace (PIT) 50/1 Chris Wells (ARI) 7/2 Pat White (MIA) 30/1 Field (Any Other Player) 9/1 To visit this sports betting site go to BettingExpress.com for all your football betting lines needs. For sports betting with credit cards site go to BettingExpress.com as well.
How to bet pro footballThere is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon. Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality. Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on. Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain. Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top. The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap? To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense. Home vs. Away Teams Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week. Price ranges Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1. Playoff teams It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time. Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games. Scoring defense and scoring offense Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1. Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period. There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail. Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road. Scoring margin An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team. In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season. Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In sum Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap. The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits. To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs. |
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