Bottom feeders, L.A., N.E. aim to gain ground
Soccer Betting Lines
07/03/2009 -
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two Major League Soccer clubs stuck in the
bottom third of their respective conference tables square off on Saturday when
the Los Angeles Galaxy host the New England Revolution at The Home Depot
Center.
The Galaxy (3-3-9) are actually coming off an impressive 1-0 win over league
leading Houston in their last league match on Sunday.
"I thought for the first time this year our central backs played extremely
well over 90 minutes," Los Angeles coach Bruce Arena said. "They were pretty
consistent. They didn't make any mistakes. They controlled the line very well,
and organized the team extremely well. To me, it was all about our central
backs, the start of the game was better. We consistently at home have given up
the first goal, played with 10 players and done all the things you do to lose
games. Fortunately, we got a point out of a lot of them. We corrected those
mistakes [vs. Houston]. We didn't put ourselves behind the eight ball and
chase the game."
The Galaxy are hoping a busy July schedule will propel them right back into
playoff contention.
"We talked about trying to get ahead of in games, and play the game on our
terms while also doing a better job in reacting to goals against us if we do
fall behind," L.A.'s Eddie Lewis said. "But in general, it was a very good win
for us. It is another building block for us as we move on in the season."
New England (4-4-4), on the other hand, is coming off a 3-1 loss in its last
league fixture on June 13 at Kansas City. The team has been successful as of
late, however, with two wins in three tries in SuperLiga action.
"I don't know if you guys have looked at our bench, but it's looking pretty
slim. We only have three or four guys. Rosters were cut this year and it's
become a lot more difficult on us," said defender Jeff Larentowicz. "At this
point, we're playing in essentially three different competitions right now so
we're going to have four or five games in two weeks. It's a lot of games with
half the roster."
The Revs will be without defender Jay Heaps because of his participation in
the CONCACAF Gold Cup, while defender Chris Albright, midfielders Mauricio
Castro, Shalrie Joseph and Steve Ralston, and forward Taylor Twellman are out
with injuries. Defenders Kevin Alston and Gabriel Badilla are questionable
with knocks of their own.
"We're already bare-bones coming into the game," Revolution defender Chris
Tierney said. "What did we have, 15 guys? We've had so many games. Guys are
struggling with knocks and we just can't take risks. If someone pulls
something, they have to come out. There's nothing we can do about it."
The Galaxy will be without goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts because of
international duty and defenders Sean Franklin and Julian Valentin because of
injury. Midfielder Dema Kovalenko and defender Yohance Marshall are
questionable and goalkeeper Josh Saunders is probable.
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NFL betting action is back! At MySportsbook, all of the pro football odds are posted for the NFC North.
Check out how we see the four teams in this cloudy division stacking up this year in the chase for the playoffs! Green Bay Packers (+125) - With QB Aaron Rodgers leading the offense and DC Dom Capers working his magic on defense, the Packers are a real force to be reckoned with.
Virtually nothing changed on this offense for Green Bay from last year to this year, save for the addition of rookie OT Brian Bulaga to the bunch. Expect more huge numbers from the Pack, and a relatively favorable schedule should get them over the hump and into the playoffs once again this season. My NFL Betting Predictions: 11-5, 1st place in NFC North Minnesota Vikings (+130) - There are still too many unknowns about the Vikes this year. There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not.
There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
Chicago Bears (+350) - The Bears are probably a bit of an overhyped team once again this year.No, we don't think it is plausible for QB Jay Cutler to have as bad of a season as he did last year, and we do think the additions of RB Chester Taylor and DE Julius Peppers are going to help immensely, but there's still something in the water in the Windy City that we aren't so sure about. Maybe Chicago finds its way to .500... but then again, maybe it doesn't. If Favre comes back, Cutler might be the worst quarterback in this division this year.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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